TIME: Almanac 1990

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Highlights of 1990 U.S. Industrial Outlook U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration For 1990, the outlook is for an eighth straight year of growth for U.S. industries, but at a lower rate than 1989. For manufacturing industries the forecasts show only a modest decline. For service industries consistent and comparable data is not available, but in general, service industry growth is faster than for manufacturing. Table 1 Growth Rate For Manufacturers Shipments For all Industries Covered (based on constant dollars) 1988 1989 1990 Median Average Rate 2.5 2.2 2.0 Mean Average Rate 2.6 2.1 1.9 The decline in the rate of growth of manufacturing industries follows the slowing of the economy closely. However, not all industries are affected to the same degree. Developments in certain key industries extend the economy with both positive and negative results. Table 2 Growth Rate Estimates and Projections For Selected Industry Groups (based on constant dollar shipments) 1988 1989 1990 Food & Beverages 2.7 2.0 2.3 Construction* -1.4 -1.0 0.0 Steel Mill Products 9.9 2.2 -4.1 Chemicals 2.1 3.2 1.7 Lumber & Wood Products 1.2 -3.3 1.3 Paper Industries 3.4 1.3 2.2 Ribber Plastic Products 3.5 3.5 2.8 Construction Materials 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Industrial Machinery 4.4 3.4 2.7 Machine Tools 3.3 28.6 1.2 Household Cons. Durables 2.4 0.3 -2.5 Computers* 14.0 6.2 4.3 Electrical Equipment 3.9 1.9 1.8 Telephone Equipment -1.0 1.8 2.1 Electronic Components** 18.6 6.3 0.0 Motor Vehicles 2.0 -7.1 -2.2 Auto Parts & Access. 1.2 1.6 1.4 Aerospace 3.2 2.4 3.5 Measuring & Controlling Devices 8.5 4.0 4.2 Medical and Dental Equip. 9.1 7.7 8.2 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles * Value of Construction pu in place ** In Current Dollars Two industries with major impacts are construction and motor vehicles, both cyclical industries. Lack of growth in construction affects a number os industries, especially steel, construction materials, wood products, and household consumer durables. The motor vehicle industry continues to have a major influence on U.S. industries. With sales expected to drop below 10 million units in 1990, constant dollar shipments by this industry are expected to decline again, but not as sharply as in 1989. Again steel is affected as are glass and a variety of other basic materials. The auto parts and accessories industry is less affected because of its sales to the aftermarket and to growing exports markets. Other industries such as health-related industries continue to benefit from strong growth trends. In 1990 overall health-care expenditures are expected to grow by more than 10 percent. In addition to stimulating the health and medical services industries this growth continues to boost demand for medical equipment and drugs. Another important trend detectable in the reviews is the emergence of an "information" economy. Services industries tied to information are some of the fastest growing. Manufacturing industries related to information also tend to do better than average. Computer equipment, for example, while growing slower than its historical rate, nevertheless outperforms the overall economy. This is also true of radio and television communications equipment. Trade has played a very important role in the growth of a number of industries during the past several years. In 1988 manufactures exports were up almost 28 percent. In 1989, export growth through the first 10 months slowed to an annual rate of 13 percent. However a number of industries continue to benefit from strong export growth including aircraft, machine tools, certain wood products, pharmaceutical, paper industries equipment, paper mills, and refrigeration equipment. Many of the industries that have benefited have been producers of capital goods, the same industries which were severely impacted in the earlier part of 1980s by the high dollar. In 1990 growth in merchandise exports, including manufactures will continue to slow, acting as a depressant on export-oriented industries. Nevertheless, a number of industries, many but not all in the high technology fields, will continue to experience significant export growth. These include, medical and scientific equipment, commercial aircraft, machine tools, and paper making machinery. Manufacturing Industry Performance While it is useful to look at aggregate industry groups, the outlook is basically about individual industries. Especially noteworthy is the relative uniformity of growth rates, with few growing very fast or very slow. More than 72 percent of the industries are forecast to grow between 0 and 5 percent in 1990. The estimates and forecasts show remarkably consistent trends both in the past and into the future. In 1990 150 of the 193 industries covered are expected to have positive rates of growth measured in constant dollars and 120 industries should have positive growth for each year from 1987 to 1990. Fastest Growing Industries Looking at growth rates for individual industries can provide a more detailed perspective on industry performance, A ranking of 4-digit SIC industries forecast to grow fastest in 1990 is generally consistent with the rationale earlier outlined--high tech or health related. Table 3 10 Fastest Growing Four Digit Industries in 1990 (based on constant dollar shipments) SIC Industry Percent code change 3841 Surgical and medical instruments 10.0 3842 Surgical appliances and supplies 9.0 3149 Footwear, except rubber, nec 8.0 2891 Adhesives and sealants 7.0 2835 Diagnostic substances 7.0 3548 Welding apparatus 6.8 2015 Poultry slaughtering and processing 6.7 3843 Dental equipment and supplies 6.1 2439 Structural wood members, nec 5.9 3142 House slippers 5.9 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles Adhesives and sealants while not usually considered high technology products, are utilized in the fabrication of advance composite materials. The growth of the poultry processing industry (SIC 2015) comes as no surprise as American's eating preferences shift from red meat to chicken. The growth forecast for the two footwear industries appears inconsistent with trends, but reflects some special factors. First, they are both specialty categories of footwear with annual sales of less than $1 billion. Footwear, nec, includes infant's and children's and sports shoes which are benefiting from growing demand. Stabilization appears to be taking place in the footwear industry with imports leveling off and the domestic industry having undergone a rationalization, leaving only the most competitive companies in the business. The performance of structural wood members appears to run counter to trend in the construction industry. However, this industry produces a specialized product that remains in demand and which is also benefiting from a lower dollar which has helped increase exports, particularly to Japan. Table 4 10 Fastest Growing Four Digit Industries: 1988 to 1990 (based on constant dollar shipments) SIC Industry Percent code change 3541 Machine tools, metal cutting types 41.6 3149 Footwear, except rubber, nec 20.4 3842 Surgical appliances and supplies 18.5 3841 Surgical and medical instruments 18.0 2439 Structural wood members, nec 15.2 3843 Dental equipment and supplies 14.8 3142 House slippers 14.5 3548 Welding apparatus 14.3 3845 Electromedical equipment 13.6 2835 Diagnostic substances 13.4 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles Taking a two-year perspective on growth has relatively little effect on which industries are fastest growing. High tech and health industries continue to predominate but there are exceptions. Machine tools are one exception to the pattern. The more favorable exchange rates leading to large export gains, the voluntary restraint agreements, and a surge in orders in 1987 and 1988 led to an outstanding year in 1989. Even though orders slowed in 1989, this very cyclical industry will remain at a high level of output in 1990. Ranking based on changes in rate of growth can sometimes be misleading. Looking at changes in the volume of shipments gives a different perspective. Table 5 10 Fastest Growing Four Digit Industries in 1990 Ranked by Change in Value of Shipments SIC Industry Billions code $1987 357A Computers & Peripherals (SIC 3571,72,75,77) 3.0 366A Radio Commun Eq (SIC 3663,3669,3812) 2.2 308A Misc. Plastics Products, except Bottles 1.9 275 Commercial Printing 1.5 3724 Aircraft engines and engine parts 1.3 2834 Pharmaceutical preparations 1.2 2015 Poultry slaughtering and processing 1.1 3721 Aircraft 1.1 3842 Surgical appliances and supplies 0.9 3841 Surgical and medical instruments 0.9 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles While some industries that are growing quickly on a percentage basis are also ranked high in change in dollar volume, the rankings are dominated by larger but somewhat slower growing industries. Slowest Growing Industries Looking at the negative side, industries which are affected by construction and, especially, residential housing, and industries which are tied to motor vehicles, are expected to do poorly. The poor performance of cigars and chewing tobacco is also not surprising. Ranking such as these need to be interpreted cautiously. For example, the low rate of growth of real shipments of the Carburetor, pistons, rings, valves industry (SIC 3592) is due in part to the shift in the composition of output from carburetors by fuel injectors which have a higher unit costs. Table 6 10 Slowest Growing Four Digit Industries in 1990 (based on constant dollar shipments) SIC Industry Percent code change 3633 Household laundry equipment -5.0 3211 Flat glass -4.9 2121 Cigars -4.7 3639 Household appliances, nec -4.4 3632 Household refrigerators and freezers -4.2 331A Steel Mill Products (SIC 3312,15-17 -4.1 2131 Chewing and smoking tobacco -4.0 3441 Fabricated structural metal -3.8 3592 Carburetors, pistons, rings, valves -3.7 3021 Rubber and plastics footwear -3.6 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles Service Industries Services, as already noted, will continue to perform well and for the most part outperform manufacturing industries. This occurs in part because service industries are typically less cyclical than manufacturing and are thus affected by the slowing economy. Nevertheless, smaller growth in demand for manufactured goods also reduces demand for services used by business. Table 7 Growth Rates for Selected Service Industries in 1990 Industry Unit of Rate of growth Measure percentchange Space Commerce Revenues 20.0 Elect. Info. Serv. Revenues 20.0 Computer Software Revenues 18.0 Computer Prof.Serv. Revenues 17.6 Data Processing Revenues 16.0 Mgmt. Consult & P.R Receipts 15.0 Oper. & Maintenance Airlines Expenditures 15.0 Security Receipts 15.0 Buildings Expenditures 10.0 Electric Power Expenditures 7.5 Prerecorded Music Manuf. value 14.0 Health & Med. Serv. Expenditures 10.4 Cable Television Revenues 10.0 Home Entertainment Revenues 10.0 Hotels & Motels Receipts 8.5 Electric Power Expenditures 7.5 Equipment Leasing Equip. Cost Added 7.5 Food Retailing Sales 7.5 Airlines Revenues 7.0 Trucking Revenues 6.5 Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook datafiles Despite the downward pressures, strong positive trends will continue to spur demand for services. One such trend is the continuing evolution of the U.S. economy to an "information'' economy. As a result information industries such as electronic information services, data processing, space commerce and others will all continue to grow strongly. Another strong trend also already mentioned is in health care services, with expenditures expected to reach 11.5 percent of GNP in 1989. Travel services will continue to grow due in part to the low dollar. In 1989 for the first time travel receipts from foreign visitors to the United States exceeded travel payments by U.S. residents traveling abroad.